Don't Be Afraid of the Chinese Economic Tiger

The news that China has surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest economy has generated a lot of attention. It shouldn't. There are roughly 10 times as many people in China as there are in Japan, so the fact that total gross domestic product in China is now bigger than total gross domestic product in Japan is hardly a sign of Chinese economic supremacy. Yes, China has been growing in recent decades, but it's almost impossible not to grow when you start at the bottom - which is where China was in the late 1970s thanks to decades of communist oppression and mismanagement. And the growth they have experienced certainly has not been enough to overtake other nations based on measures that compare living standards. According to the World Bank, per capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity) was $6,710 for China in 2009, compared to $33,280 for Japan (and $46,730 for the U.S.). If I got to choose where to be a middle-class person, China certainly wouldn't be my first pick.

This is not to sneer at the positive changes in China. Hundreds of millions of people have experienced big increases in living standards. Better to have $6,710 of per capita GDP than $3,710. But China still has a long way to go if the goal is a vibrant and rich free-market economy. The country's nominal communist leadership has allowed economic liberalization, but China is still an economically repressed nation. Economic Freedom of the World ranks China 82 out of 141, just one spot above Russia, and the Index of Economic Freedom has an even lower score, 140 out of 179 nations.

Hopefully, China will continue to move in the right direction. As Jonah Goldberg notes in his Townhall column, it is good for America to have China become a more prosperous nation.

Yes, technically, China's gross domestic product is now slightly ahead of Japan's. But GDP is a gross statistic. It doesn't tell you nearly as much as you might think. In a very real way, China is still poorer than Japan. It's also poorer than Tunisia, Ecuador, Gabon, Kazakhstan and Namibia. ...China still has enormous problems, many of which aren't reflected in its GDP growth rates, and without democracy, a free press and the rule of law, we can't know what all of the problems are until they explode (and neither can the Chinese). But all of this misses the most important point. Economic "competitiveness" is a con. It assumes that when other countries prosper, America loses. That's nonsense. If the average Chinese worker were as rich as the average Japanese worker, it would be an economic windfall for the United States. Conversely, if China's economy imploded tomorrow, we would "gain" competitively but suffer economically. The cult of competitiveness is just a ruse used to justify the ambitions of economic planners and the pundits who worship them.

America Will Now Be the Unquestioned World Leader...But in the Wrong Way

The United States has a very anti-competitive corporate tax regime. The federal tax rates is 35 percent and the average of state corporate tax systems brings the rate to nearly 40 percent. In Europe, by contrast, the average corporate tax rate is about 25 percent. Depending on which measure is used, the United States and Japan have been rivals for the dubious prize of having the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world. But that's about to change. According to a story that I saw linked on the Tax Foundation blog, the new Japanese government intends to lower its corporate tax rate by 10 to 15 percentage points. This means America will have no rivals in the contest for having the most anti-growth business tax system in the world. This is something to keep in mind the next time you hear a politician complaining about jobs going to China and India.

Japan's new government plans to cut corporate tax closer to international norms as it tries to haul Asia's biggest economy out of a long slump, the economy minister said in a report Friday. The government is aiming to cut tax on company earnings by five percentage points next fiscal year, from an effective 40 percent now, the Nikkei business daily quoted Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Masayuki Naoshima as saying. "It's a fact that international corporate tax rates are 10 to 15 points lower than Japan's," said Naoshima, who is part of Prime Minister Naoto Kan's new cabinet sworn in this week. "Over the medium term, the government will aim to bring the rate down to around the global standard," he said. ..."It is now the time to decide (on cutting corporate tax) for the sake of future economic vitality, employment and securing increased tax revenues," the minister said. "Japan's economy has basically been in a slump for the past 20 years and people have been overwhelmed by a sense of stagnation."

Is Japan the Next Greece?

Total government debt is about 115 percent of GDP in Greece, which clearly is one of the factors that spooked investors and led to the bailout. But Japan - at least on paper - is in much worse shape with government debt approaching 200 percent of GDP (see page 80). And with a grim demographic outlook (lots of aging people and comparatively few young people to enter the workforce), the nation's fiscal position seems dismal. Yet the Japanese government is widely perceived as more trustworthy, particularly by domestic savers who finance much of the government's debt. At some point, however, one would imagine that the proverbial chickens will come home to roost and Japan will face a fiscal crisis. Here's some interesting background from a New York Times story:

Seeking to bring its spiraling debt under control, Japan has undertaken an unlikely exercise: lawmakers are forcing bureaucrats to defend their budgets at public hearings and are slashing wanton spending. The hearings, streamed live on the Internet, are part of an effort by the eight-month-old government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to tackle the country's public debt, which has mushroomed to twice the size of Japan's $5 trillion economy after years of profligate spending. Greece's debt crisis, which has panicked investors and forced the rest of Europe to put together a multibillion-dollar bailout, has fed fears in Tokyo that if spending is unchecked, Japan could become the center of the next global financial crisis. ...The target of the most recent hearings, which began Friday, is Japan's web of quasi-government agencies and public corporations - nonprofits that draw some 3.4 trillion yen ($36 billion) in annual public funds, but operate with little public scrutiny. Critics have long argued that these organizations, many of which offer cushy executive jobs to retired public officials, epitomize the wasteful spending that has driven Japan's public debt to dangerous levels. The daily testimony by cowering bureaucrats, covered extensively in local media, has given the Japanese their first-ever detailed look at state spending. So far, viewers have looked on in disbelief over the apparent absurdity of some of the government spending. In one example scrutinized on Tuesday, the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, which is government financed, spent 130 million yen ($1.4 million) last year on a 3-D movie theater used to show footage of scenery from the countryside. The movie dome, which also plays recordings of chirping insects and babbling streams, is closed to the public and is used to study how the human brain reacts to different types of scenery, said Takami Komae, head of the organization's rural engineering department. The findings will be used to help rural areas think of ways to attract more tourists, he testified. Politicians ridiculed the project. "The dome is located in the countryside anyway, isn't it?" said Manabu Terada, a Democratic Party lawmaker, at a public hearing in Tokyo. "Can't we just step outside and see the real thing?" ...Under particular scrutiny at the hearings have been the retired ministry officials who take comfortable positions at the government-linked organizations in a practice known as "amakudari," or "descent from heaven." The network of these agencies is complex, including 104 large organizations supervised directly by the government and 6,625 smaller public corporations. Critics say that many of the former bureaucrats use their connections in government to win public money for dubious construction and research projects, then delegate the work while their organizations pocket much of the budget as administrative fees. Aki Wakabayashi, an author and former worker at a government-supported labor think tank, has been one of the most fervent critics of government spending on these organizations. In 2001, she blew the whistle on her institute, describing lavish foreign "research" trips for the former bureaucrats leading the institute - complete with first-class air travel and stays in five-star hotels - and clerks who drew researcher salaries while spending their days chatting and reading magazines.