Too Little and Too Late for Europe, Part II

When even the New York Times is writing articles about the collapse of the European welfare state, you know that the political establishment is finally recognizing the writing on the wall. Recognizing a problem and solving a problem, however, are two different things. They need to use an axe on their budgets, but the examples below indicate a scalpel is being wielded instead. The key thing to look for is whether government spending in the future is consuming a larger or smaller share of economic output (GDP), and I sadly expect the burden of government spending in Europe to grow:

The deficit crisis that threatens the euro has also undermined the sustainability of the European standard of social welfare, built by left-leaning governments since the end of World War II. Europeans have boasted about their social model, with its generous vacations and early retirements, its national health care systems and extensive welfare benefits, contrasting it with the comparative harshness of American capitalism. Europeans have benefited from low military spending, protected by NATO and the American nuclear umbrella. ...But all over Europe governments with big budgets, falling tax revenues and aging populations are experiencing rising deficits, with more bad news ahead. With low growth, low birthrates and longer life expectancies, Europe can no longer afford its comfortable lifestyle.... The countries are trying to reassure investors by cutting salaries, raising legal retirement ages, increasing work hours and reducing health benefits and pensions.... The reaction so far to government efforts to cut spending has been pessimism and anger, with an understanding that the current system is unsustainable. In Athens, Aris Iordanidis, 25, an economics graduate working in a bookstore, resents paying high taxes to finance Greece's bloated state sector and its employees. "They sit there for years drinking coffee and chatting on the telephone and then retire at 50 with nice fat pensions," he said. "As for us, the way things are going we'll have to work until we're 70." ...the region lacks competitiveness in world markets. According to the European Commission, by 2050 the percentage of Europeans older than 65 will nearly double. In the 1950s there were seven workers for every retiree in advanced economies. By 2050, the ratio in the European Union will drop to 1.3 to 1. ...Figures show the severity of the problem. Gross public social expenditures in the European Union increased from 16 percent of gross domestic product in 1980 to 21 percent in 2005, compared with 15.9 percent in the United States. In France, the figure now is 31 percent, the highest in Europe... The challenge is particularly daunting in France, which has done less to reduce the state's obligations than some of its neighbors. ...The legal retirement age in France is 60, while Germany recently raised it to 67 for those born after 1963. With the retirement of the baby boomers, the number of pensioners will rise 47 percent in France between now and 2050, while the number under 60 will remain stagnant. ...President Nicolas Sarkozy has vowed to pass major pension reform this year. ...the government, afraid to lower pensions, wants to increase taxes on high salaries and increase the years of work. ...while most French see a pension overhaul as necessary, up to 60 percent say working past 60 is not the answer...."This will have to be harmonized, Europeanized, or it won't work - you can't have a pension at 67 here and 55 in Greece," Mr. Fischer said.The problems are even more acute in the "new democracies" of the euro zone - Greece, Portugal and Spain - that embraced European democratic ideals and that Europe embraced for political reasons in the postwar era, perhaps before their economies were ready. They have built lavish state systems on the back of the euro, but now must change. Under threat of default, Greece has frozen pensions for three years and drafted a bill to raise the legal retirement age to 65. Greece froze public-sector pay and trimmed benefits for state employees, including a bonus two months of salary. Portugal has cut 5 percent from the salaries of senior public employees and politicians and increased taxes, while canceling big projects; Spain is cutting civil service salaries by 5 percent and freezing pay in 2011 while also chopping public projects. ...In Athens, Mr. Iordanidis, the graduate who makes 800 euros a month in a bookstore, said he saw one possible upside. "It could be a chance to overhaul the whole rancid system," he said, "and create a state that actually works."